Udinese vs Lecce
The thinnest game on the card. Two bottom-half sides with bad defences: Lecce have the third-worst expected goals against in the league (12.0), Udinese are not far behind (10.3) and have not kept a clean sheet. The market has Udinese at 50% and our expected goals model lands at 50.1%. The two retail models want a tight, low-scoring game, while the expected goals data and Udinese's results (both teams scored in five of six) point the other way. When the evidence splits this cleanly, the market price in the middle is usually right, so everything here is low confidence. Note the early kickoff: place it Saturday night if you want it.
📊 The numbers
Udinese Form (last 5): L-L-L-L-W (15th, 4 pts)
Lecce Form (last 5): L-L-W-L-L (13th, 6 pts)
| Stat | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.22 / 1.72 | 1.05 / 2 |
| Goals for / against per game | 1.5 / 2.17 | 1 / 2 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 0 | 0 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 0-1-2, 2 scored, 4 conceded | Away: 1-0-2, 2 scored, 4 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 4 wins in the last 5 meetings | 1 win in the last 5 meetings |
Our read: Udinese have won four of the last five meetings and Lecce concede more chances than almost anyone. The case against: Udinese have not won at home this season.
Top 3 picks
- 1Udinese to win-111*Low
Fair 49.9%, ours 51.0%, edge +1.1. Udinese have won four of the last five meetings and Lecce concede chances to everyone. Against: inside de-vig error, and Udinese are winless at home.
- 2Over 2.5 goals+100*Low
Fair 47.2%, ours 49.0%, edge +1.8. Two of the three worst defences by expected goals. Against: both retail models say Under, and both venue splits are 1 of 3 over.
- 3Udinese team total Over 1.5+100*Low
Fair 46.3%, ours 48.0%, edge +1.7 (one book). Lecce have conceded two or more in four of six. Against: Udinese have not scored twice at home all season.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.