Venezia vs Napoli
Venezia are bottom with zero points from six games and sacked Giovanni Stroppa after the 3-1 loss at Atalanta; Davide Nicola takes charge for the first time today. The underlying numbers say Venezia are less bad than 0-6: they have created 10.2 expected goals and scored 5, the biggest finishing shortfall in the league. Their defending is the real problem, with two or more conceded in all six matches. Napoli arrive four days after a 3-1 Champions League defeat at Villarreal, with Neres, Buongiorno, Vergara and Favasuli out and Bodø/Glimt to come on Tuesday, and their away defending has been loose (6.5 expected goals against in three away games). We agree Napoli should win, but think the game is more open than the price implies.
📊 The numbers
Venezia Form (last 5): L-L-L-L-L (20th, 0 pts, new coach)
Napoli Form (last 5): W-D-W-L-L (9th, 10 pts)
| Stat | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.7 / 2.12 | 1.77 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against per game | 0.83 / 2.67 | 1.67 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 0 | 2 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 0-0-3, 2 scored, 8 conceded | Away: 1-1-1, 5 scored, 4 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 0 wins in the last 4 meetings | 3 wins in the last 4 meetings |
Our read: The expected goals gap (Venezia scoring half of what they create) is the strongest argument for goals, and Napoli's away defending supports it. The case against: the head-to-head is four games, four Napoli clean sheets, all under 2.5.
Top 3 picks
- 1Both teams to score: Yes-139*Med
Fair 54.7%, ours 58.0%, edge +3.3. Venezia create 1.7 expected goals a game and Napoli concede them away; a new coach removes some of the inertia behind six straight defeats. Against: Venezia blanked in two of three home games.
- 2Over 2.5 goals-138*Low
Fair 54.8%, ours 57.0%, edge +2.2. Every Venezia game has had at least two goals against them. Same thesis as pick 1, so size it smaller. Against: Napoli have three clean sheets in six.
- 3Venezia Draw No Bet+250*Low
Fair 27.1%, ours 30.0%, edge +2.9 (one book). A contrarian flier on a new-coach bounce against a depleted Napoli. Against: Venezia have not taken a point all season.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
More games to read
All Football picks →*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.