Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
Udinese vs Lecce
The thinnest game on the card. Two bottom-half sides with bad defences: Lecce have the third-worst expected goals against in the league (12.0), Udinese are not far behind (10.3) and have not kept a clean sheet. The market has Udinese at 50% and our expected goals model lands at 50.1%. The two retail models want a tight, low-scoring game, while the expected goals data and Udinese's results (both teams scored in five of six) point the other way. When the evidence splits this cleanly, the market price in the middle is usually right, so everything here is low confidence. Note the early kickoff: place it Saturday night if you want it.
📊 Los números
Udinese Forma (últimos 5): L-L-L-L-W (15th, 4 pts)
Lecce Forma (últimos 5): L-L-W-L-L (13th, 6 pts)
| Dato | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 1.22 / 1.72 | 1.05 / 2 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 1.5 / 2.17 | 1 / 2 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 67% | 67% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 83% | 33% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 0 | 0 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 0-1-2, 2 scored, 4 conceded | Away: 1-0-2, 2 scored, 4 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 4 wins in the last 5 meetings | 1 win in the last 5 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Udinese have won four of the last five meetings and Lecce concede more chances than almost anyone. The case against: Udinese have not won at home this season.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1Udinese to win-111*Baja
Fair 49.9%, ours 51.0%, edge +1.1. Udinese have won four of the last five meetings and Lecce concede chances to everyone. Against: inside de-vig error, and Udinese are winless at home.
- 2Over 2.5 goals+100*Baja
Fair 47.2%, ours 49.0%, edge +1.8. Two of the three worst defences by expected goals. Against: both retail models say Under, and both venue splits are 1 of 3 over.
- 3Udinese team total Over 1.5+100*Baja
Fair 46.3%, ours 48.0%, edge +1.7 (one book). Lecce have conceded two or more in four of six. Against: Udinese have not scored twice at home all season.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
Más partidos para leer
Todos los pronósticos de Fútbol →*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.