Fiorentina vs Como
Fiorentina are 19th under their second coach of the season (Vanoli replaced Grosso in early September), but their expected goals (9.8 for, 8.7 against) say a mid-table side that has been unlucky, while Como (8th) have similar underlying numbers. Como lost 3-2 at Feyenoord on Wednesday, host Manchester United next Wednesday, and are without Kean and Diao. The market has Como as the away favourite at 46.6%; we think that is a little rich. The bigger signal is goals at both ends: Fiorentina have not kept a clean sheet all season and Como have kept one.
📊 The numbers
Fiorentina Form (last 5): L-D-W-L-L (19th, 4 pts)
Como Form (last 5): D-L-W-W-W (8th, 11 pts)
| Stat | Fiorentina | Como |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.63 / 1.45 | 1.82 / 1.53 |
| Goals for / against per game | 1.17 / 2.33 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 0 | 1 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 0-1-2, 2 scored, 6 conceded | Away: 2-1-1, 7 scored, 5 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 2 wins in the last 5 meetings | 3 wins in the last 5 meetings |
Our read: Two leaky defences and Como's European schedule point to an open game. The case against: Como's away record is strong and they may simply be the better side.
Top 3 picks
- 1Both teams to score: Yes-178*Med
Fair 59.8%, ours 63.0%, edge +3.2; model median 67.9%. Fiorentina have conceded in every game and Como have one clean sheet in six. Against: a steep price, and Como's best striker is out.
- 2Fiorentina Draw No Bet+145*Med
Fair 38.2%, ours 41.5%, edge +3.3. Como's midweek trip, Wednesday's Manchester United game and two key absences. Against: Fiorentina are 0-1-2 at home.
- 3Over 2.5 goals-154*Low
Fair 57.2%, ours 58.5%, edge +1.3. Five of six Fiorentina games went over. Same script as pick 1. Against: a small edge at a big price.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.