Roma vs Genoa
On paper the most lopsided game of the round, and the retail models price it that way (Roma 65% to 69%). The market has Roma at 61%, and it is right to be lower: Roma lose top scorer Malen (6 goals, suspended), first-choice goalkeeper Svilar (broken finger), Cristante and probably Koné, and they played a 4-3 Champions League game against Real Madrid on Wednesday with Slovan Bratislava on Tuesday. Our expected goals model, which sees nothing about lineups, lands exactly on the market's 61%, so there is no edge on the result. Where we lean is the shape: Genoa have created 1.1 expected goals in two away games, and Roma without Malen are a lower-ceiling attack.
📊 The numbers
Roma Form (last 5): D-D-W-W-W (3rd, 14 pts)
Genoa Form (last 5): W-L-D-L-L (17th, 4 pts)
| Stat | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 2.25 / 1.12 | 0.97 / 1.25 |
| Goals for / against per game | 2.33 / 0.5 | 0.83 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 2-1-0, 8 scored, 3 conceded | Away: 0-0-2, 1 scored, 3 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 3 wins in the last 5 meetings | 1 win in the last 5 meetings |
Our read: Roma's four clean sheets and Genoa's weak away attack point to a low Genoa total. The case against: Roma's back-up goalkeeper is untested, and three of the last five meetings had both teams scoring.
Top 3 picks
- 1Under 2.5 goals-105*Low
Fair 48.7%, ours 51.5%, edge +2.8. No Malen, a new goalkeeper and a Genoa side that barely creates away. Against: the models lean Over and Roma's three home games all went over.
- 2Both teams to score: No-120*Low
Fair 51.4%, ours 53.5%, edge +2.1, model median 52.5%. Roma have four clean sheets in six. Against: Genoa have scored in four of six and beat Roma 2-1 in March.
- 3Genoa team total Under 0.5+110*Low
Fair 44.0%, ours 46.0%, edge +2.0 (one book). Same script as pick 2, sized down. Against: an untested goalkeeper, and a one-book market carries about 8 points of vig.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.