Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
Roma vs Genoa
On paper the most lopsided game of the round, and the retail models price it that way (Roma 65% to 69%). The market has Roma at 61%, and it is right to be lower: Roma lose top scorer Malen (6 goals, suspended), first-choice goalkeeper Svilar (broken finger), Cristante and probably Koné, and they played a 4-3 Champions League game against Real Madrid on Wednesday with Slovan Bratislava on Tuesday. Our expected goals model, which sees nothing about lineups, lands exactly on the market's 61%, so there is no edge on the result. Where we lean is the shape: Genoa have created 1.1 expected goals in two away games, and Roma without Malen are a lower-ceiling attack.
📊 Los números
Roma Forma (últimos 5): D-D-W-W-W (3rd, 14 pts)
Genoa Forma (últimos 5): W-L-D-L-L (17th, 4 pts)
| Dato | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 2.25 / 1.12 | 0.97 / 1.25 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 2.33 / 0.5 | 0.83 / 1.83 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 67% | 50% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 33% | 67% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 2 | 0 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 2-1-0, 8 scored, 3 conceded | Away: 0-0-2, 1 scored, 3 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 3 wins in the last 5 meetings | 1 win in the last 5 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Roma's four clean sheets and Genoa's weak away attack point to a low Genoa total. The case against: Roma's back-up goalkeeper is untested, and three of the last five meetings had both teams scoring.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1Under 2.5 goals-105*Baja
Fair 48.7%, ours 51.5%, edge +2.8. No Malen, a new goalkeeper and a Genoa side that barely creates away. Against: the models lean Over and Roma's three home games all went over.
- 2Both teams to score: No-120*Baja
Fair 51.4%, ours 53.5%, edge +2.1, model median 52.5%. Roma have four clean sheets in six. Against: Genoa have scored in four of six and beat Roma 2-1 in March.
- 3Genoa team total Under 0.5+110*Baja
Fair 44.0%, ours 46.0%, edge +2.0 (one book). Same script as pick 2, sized down. Against: an untested goalkeeper, and a one-book market carries about 8 points of vig.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
Más partidos para leer
Todos los pronósticos de Fútbol →*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.