Parma vs Torino
Two poor sides by expected goals: Parma have the weakest attack in the league (4.6), and Torino have conceded 10.0 expected goals with no clean sheets. Parma's new coach Gilardino lost his first game 0-3 at Inter and now gets his home debut. The market makes Torino the favourite at 40.7% away from home, and both the algorithmic model (31%) and our expected goals model (35.8%) think that is too high. We side with Parma on the draw no bet, which also returns the stake on the most likely single result.
📊 The numbers
Parma Form (last 5): L-W-L-D-L (18th, 4 pts, new coach)
Torino Form (last 5): W-D-L-W-L (12th, 7 pts)
| Stat | Parma | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 0.77 / 1.7 | 1.07 / 1.67 |
| Goals for / against per game | 0.67 / 1.67 | 1.17 / 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 0 | 0 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 1-1-1, 3 scored, 3 conceded | Away: 1-1-1, 4 scored, 4 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 1 win in the last 4 meetings | 1 win in the last 4 meetings |
Our read: Neither side has a process that justifies a 40% away price. The case against: Parma's attack is the worst in Italy.
Top 3 picks
- 1Parma Draw No Bet+125*Med
Fair 41.3%, ours 45.0%, edge +3.7; the algorithmic model and our expected goals model both put it near 51%. Against: Parma have failed to score in three of six.
- 2Both teams to score: Yes+100*Low
Fair 46.9%, ours 49.0%, edge +2.1. Neither side has kept a clean sheet. Against: Parma's 0.77 expected goals a game make them the likeliest blank on the card.
- 3Draw+205*Low
Fair 31.1%, ours 32.0%, edge +0.9; the algorithmic model has 37%. Overlaps pick 1, which refunds on a draw. Against: inside de-vig error.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.