Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
Parma vs Torino
Two poor sides by expected goals: Parma have the weakest attack in the league (4.6), and Torino have conceded 10.0 expected goals with no clean sheets. Parma's new coach Gilardino lost his first game 0-3 at Inter and now gets his home debut. The market makes Torino the favourite at 40.7% away from home, and both the algorithmic model (31%) and our expected goals model (35.8%) think that is too high. We side with Parma on the draw no bet, which also returns the stake on the most likely single result.
📊 Los números
Parma Forma (últimos 5): L-W-L-D-L (18th, 4 pts, new coach)
Torino Forma (últimos 5): W-D-L-W-L (12th, 7 pts)
| Dato | Parma | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 0.77 / 1.7 | 1.07 / 1.67 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 0.67 / 1.67 | 1.17 / 1.5 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 50% | 67% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 50% | 83% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 0 | 0 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 1-1-1, 3 scored, 3 conceded | Away: 1-1-1, 4 scored, 4 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 1 win in the last 4 meetings | 1 win in the last 4 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Neither side has a process that justifies a 40% away price. The case against: Parma's attack is the worst in Italy.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1Parma Draw No Bet+125*Media
Fair 41.3%, ours 45.0%, edge +3.7; the algorithmic model and our expected goals model both put it near 51%. Against: Parma have failed to score in three of six.
- 2Both teams to score: Yes+100*Baja
Fair 46.9%, ours 49.0%, edge +2.1. Neither side has kept a clean sheet. Against: Parma's 0.77 expected goals a game make them the likeliest blank on the card.
- 3Draw+205*Baja
Fair 31.1%, ours 32.0%, edge +0.9; the algorithmic model has 37%. Overlaps pick 1, which refunds on a draw. Against: inside de-vig error.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
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*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.