Monza vs Cagliari
Where results and chances diverge most on the card. Cagliari are 4th with 13 points from a 6-3 goal record, but their expected goals are 5.3 for and 10.7 against, the fifth-worst defensive process in the league, and four of their wins are by a single goal. Promoted Monza are 16th with a 9-15 goal record built on 9.9 expected goals for and 8.1 against, a positive process with bad luck at both ends. The market has already moved toward Monza (favourites at 39.6% despite the table), but not far enough for us. Cagliari's coach Pisacane is banned from the bench, and Monza lose defender Lucchesi to suspension.
📊 The numbers
Monza Form (last 5): L-W-L-D-L (16th, 4 pts, promoted)
Cagliari Form (last 5): D-W-W-W-L (4th, 13 pts)
| Stat | Monza | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.65 / 1.35 | 0.88 / 1.78 |
| Goals for / against per game | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 100% | 33% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 0 | 2 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 1-0-1, 4 scored, 4 conceded | Away: 3-0-0, 4 scored, 1 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 1 win in the last 4 meetings | 2 wins in the last 4 meetings |
Our read: Conceding 3 goals from 10.7 expected goals against is not sustainable over a season. The case against: Cagliari are 3-0-0 away, and the head-to-head favours them.
Top 3 picks
- 1Monza to win+139*Med
Fair 39.6%, ours 44.0%, edge +4.4. Conceding 3 goals from 10.7 expected against is not sustainable. Against: both outside models are broken in opposite directions, so source deletion leaves a thin case.
- 2Over 2.5 goals+110*Low
Fair 44.8%, ours 48.0%, edge +3.2. Cagliari games average 2.67 expected goals even though one has gone over. Against: the fixture evidence and every model here say Under.
- 3Monza team total Over 1.5+137*Low
Fair 39.3%, ours 43.0%, edge +3.7 (one book). Same thesis as pick 1. Against: Cagliari have conceded more than once only once.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
More games to read
All Football picks →*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.