Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
Monza vs Cagliari
Where results and chances diverge most on the card. Cagliari are 4th with 13 points from a 6-3 goal record, but their expected goals are 5.3 for and 10.7 against, the fifth-worst defensive process in the league, and four of their wins are by a single goal. Promoted Monza are 16th with a 9-15 goal record built on 9.9 expected goals for and 8.1 against, a positive process with bad luck at both ends. The market has already moved toward Monza (favourites at 39.6% despite the table), but not far enough for us. Cagliari's coach Pisacane is banned from the bench, and Monza lose defender Lucchesi to suspension.
📊 Los números
Monza Forma (últimos 5): L-W-L-D-L (16th, 4 pts, promoted)
Cagliari Forma (últimos 5): D-W-W-W-L (4th, 13 pts)
| Dato | Monza | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 1.65 / 1.35 | 0.88 / 1.78 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 83% | 17% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 100% | 33% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 0 | 2 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 1-0-1, 4 scored, 4 conceded | Away: 3-0-0, 4 scored, 1 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 1 win in the last 4 meetings | 2 wins in the last 4 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Conceding 3 goals from 10.7 expected goals against is not sustainable over a season. The case against: Cagliari are 3-0-0 away, and the head-to-head favours them.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1Monza to win+139*Media
Fair 39.6%, ours 44.0%, edge +4.4. Conceding 3 goals from 10.7 expected against is not sustainable. Against: both outside models are broken in opposite directions, so source deletion leaves a thin case.
- 2Over 2.5 goals+110*Baja
Fair 44.8%, ours 48.0%, edge +3.2. Cagliari games average 2.67 expected goals even though one has gone over. Against: the fixture evidence and every model here say Under.
- 3Monza team total Over 1.5+137*Baja
Fair 39.3%, ours 43.0%, edge +3.7 (one book). Same thesis as pick 1. Against: Cagliari have conceded more than once only once.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
Más partidos para leer
Todos los pronósticos de Fútbol →*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.