AC Milan vs Atalanta
Milan under Amorim are unbeaten (3-3-0) and have not conceded at home (two games, 5-0). Atalanta under Sarri are a squad in crisis: Hien, Kossounou, Scalvini, Kessie, Raspadori and Sulemana are out and Elmas is suspended, and their away numbers are poor (0-0-2, one goal scored, 2.3 expected goals against per game). Both sides played in Europe on Thursday. The market has Milan at 53%; the algorithmic model (57.6%) and our expected goals model (59.1%) are both higher. We side with Milan, against a head-to-head in which Atalanta are unbeaten in the last five.
📊 The numbers
AC Milan Form (last 5): D-W-D-D-W (6th, 12 pts)
Atalanta Form (last 5): W-L-L-L-W (10th, 9 pts)
| Stat | AC Milan | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.52 / 1.12 | 1.12 / 1.87 |
| Goals for / against per game | 1.83 / 0.83 | 1.33 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 1 | 0 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 2-0-0, 5 scored, 0 conceded | Away: 0-0-2, 1 scored, 4 conceded |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 0 wins in the last 5 meetings | 3 wins in the last 5 meetings |
Our read: Atalanta's expected goals against (11.2, fourth worst) plus seven absentees outweigh a head-to-head built by a different Atalanta. The case against: Milan's attack is ordinary by expected goals.
Top 3 picks
- 1AC Milan to win-127*Med
Fair 53.2%, ours 56.0%, edge +2.8; model median 57.6%. Atalanta are missing seven players and concede 2.3 expected goals a game away. Against: Milan have not beaten Atalanta in five meetings.
- 2Both teams to score: No+112*Low
Fair 44.3%, ours 47.0%, edge +2.7. Milan have not conceded at home and Atalanta have one goal in two away games. Against: both retail models lean Yes.
- 3Under 2.5 goals+107*Low
Fair 45.3%, ours 47.5%, edge +2.2. Atalanta's depleted squad and both teams' Thursday games. Same script as pick 2. Against: Atalanta games are 4 of 6 over.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.