Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
AC Milan vs Atalanta
Milan under Amorim are unbeaten (3-3-0) and have not conceded at home (two games, 5-0). Atalanta under Sarri are a squad in crisis: Hien, Kossounou, Scalvini, Kessie, Raspadori and Sulemana are out and Elmas is suspended, and their away numbers are poor (0-0-2, one goal scored, 2.3 expected goals against per game). Both sides played in Europe on Thursday. The market has Milan at 53%; the algorithmic model (57.6%) and our expected goals model (59.1%) are both higher. We side with Milan, against a head-to-head in which Atalanta are unbeaten in the last five.
📊 Los números
AC Milan Forma (últimos 5): D-W-D-D-W (6th, 12 pts)
Atalanta Forma (últimos 5): W-L-L-L-W (10th, 9 pts)
| Dato | AC Milan | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 1.52 / 1.12 | 1.12 / 1.87 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 1.83 / 0.83 | 1.33 / 1.33 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 50% | 67% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 67% | 67% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 1 | 0 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 2-0-0, 5 scored, 0 conceded | Away: 0-0-2, 1 scored, 4 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 0 wins in the last 5 meetings | 3 wins in the last 5 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Atalanta's expected goals against (11.2, fourth worst) plus seven absentees outweigh a head-to-head built by a different Atalanta. The case against: Milan's attack is ordinary by expected goals.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1AC Milan to win-127*Media
Fair 53.2%, ours 56.0%, edge +2.8; model median 57.6%. Atalanta are missing seven players and concede 2.3 expected goals a game away. Against: Milan have not beaten Atalanta in five meetings.
- 2Both teams to score: No+112*Baja
Fair 44.3%, ours 47.0%, edge +2.7. Milan have not conceded at home and Atalanta have one goal in two away games. Against: both retail models lean Yes.
- 3Under 2.5 goals+107*Baja
Fair 45.3%, ours 47.5%, edge +2.2. Atalanta's depleted squad and both teams' Thursday games. Same script as pick 2. Against: Atalanta games are 4 of 6 over.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
Más partidos para leer
Todos los pronósticos de Fútbol →*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.