León vs América

The weakest game on the card for us. The market has América at 43% fair and both models are slightly higher (48% and 44%), but the models do not know that Miguel Borja is suspended after his red card against Monterrey or that Víctor Dávila has a knee problem, news a liquid market prices and a backward-looking model misses. León are 4-0-1 at home with nine scored and four conceded, and they beat América 1-0 six weeks ago in the Leagues Cup third-place game. América have scored in all ten league games and are 3-1-1 away. Every market is within a couple of points of where we would price it. Our honest advice is to pass or stake the minimum.

Top 3 picks

1. 1América to win+120*Low

   Fair 43.1%, ours 46%. The better team at plus money. Against: Borja's suspension removes their main finisher, and León are 4-0-1 at home.

2. 2Under 2.5 goals+111*Low

   Fair 44.6%, ours 48%. León home games are 2 of 5 over. Against: América road games are 3 of 5 over with both sides scoring in four.

3. 3Both teams to score: No+127*Low

   Fair 41.1%, ours 45%. León have three clean sheets in five home games. Against: América have scored in every league game, and León have scored in all five home games.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.