Chivas vs Tigres UANL

The market has Chivas at 51% fair, a solid home favourite; both models have them at 38% and 43%. Normally a gap like that means the models are stale, but here the news the models cannot see points the same way: Chivas have seven players out (Castillo, Campillo, Romo, Gómez, Tapias and Bryan González injured, Castañeda suspended after his derby red card) and have won one of their last four. Tigres are dreadful on the road (0-2-4, four goals in six away games, three blanks) and carry their own absences. Two depleted attacks, a home side whose games have seen both teams score once in five home dates, and a road side that does not score: this is an under spot more than a side spot.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Under 2.5 goals+102*Med

   Fair 47.1%, ours 54%, models 55.2% and 52.2%. Chivas home games are 2 of 5 over, with both teams scoring once. Against: the last three meetings averaged 3.7 goals.

2. 2Tigres to win+295*Low

   Fair 23.9%, ours 27%, models near 30%. A plus-money road side against a popular, depleted home favourite. Against: Tigres have not won away in six games. We are betting the price, not the team.

3. 3Tigres team total Under 1.5-286*Low

   Fair 68.6%, ours 75% (one book). The cleanest expression of Tigres not scoring away, but above our -250 ceiling and barely positive in value. Small stake or skip.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.