Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez

Juárez are last with four points, 0-0-5 away with three scored and fifteen conceded. Cruz Azul should win, and the market says so at 72% fair; we agree almost exactly, which is the problem, because at that price there is nothing in the side. The interesting market is both teams to score, priced as a coin flip. Cruz Azul have kept one clean sheet in eleven and conceded seven in their last three (3-3, 3-3, 0-1), and Juárez have scored in three of five away games despite losing all of them. José Paradela, Cruz Azul's chance creator (five assists), is a major doubt, which hurts the home side's ceiling more than its floor. Kickoff listings differ (9:00pm or 9:10pm); we use 9:10pm.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Both teams to score: Yes-112*Med

   Fair 49.8%, ours 54%, models 56.0% and 49.5%. Cruz Azul's season BTTS rate is 8 of 11; Juárez away 3 of 5. Against: remove the algorithmic model and this is a marginal call.

2. 2Over 3.5 goals (only at +145 or better)+135*Low

   Fair 40.2%, ours 42%. Cruz Azul's last two home games finished 4-3 and 3-3. Against: negative value at today's average, and the only model pricing it is against it.

3. 3Cruz Azul to win (priced correctly, pass)-318*Low

   Fair 72.0%, ours 73%. The most likely outcome, with no value and above our -250 ceiling. Against: Cruz Azul have drawn their last two and Paradela is doubtful; one draw wipes out three wins.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.