Juventus vs Lazio
The table says Lazio (2nd, unbeaten) at Juventus (7th). The underlying numbers say something different. Juventus have the best defence in Italy by a distance: 3.6 expected goals against in six games, 0.6 per game, and three clean sheets. Lazio's 11-4 goal record sits on 9.0 expected goals for and 8.4 against, a mid-table process finishing and saving well above its chances. Juventus are also short of attack: Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli and Milik are out, they played at Celta on Thursday, and Spalletti is banned from the bench. Every Juventus home game this season finished under 2.5. The market has this as a coin flip on goals; we do not. This is our Serie A best bet.
📊 The numbers
Juventus Form (last 5): D-W-L-D-W (7th, 11 pts)
Lazio Form (last 5): W-W-D-W-W (2nd, 16 pts, unbeaten)
| Stat | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA per game (last 6) | 1.62 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against per game | 1.5 / 0.83 | 1.83 / 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 hit rate (season) | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS hit rate (season) | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
| Home/Away split | Home: 2-1-0, 5 scored, 1 conceded, 0 of 3 over 2.5 | Away: 3-0-0, 5 scored, 1 conceded, 1 of 3 over 2.5 |
| H2H (last 5 meetings) | 1 win in the last 5 meetings | 2 wins in the last 5 meetings |
Our read: Every Juventus home game this season finished under 2.5, they concede 0.6 expected goals a game, and they are missing their three best creators. We trust expected goals over Lazio's raw goals because the gap between them is one of the largest of any top-half side. The caveat that cuts against us: Lazio have scored in every game, and if they score first Juventus must chase with a weakened bench.
Top 3 picks
- 1Under 2.5 goals-113*HighBest Bet 🔥
Fair 50.4%, ours 56.0%, edge +5.6. All three models are on the Under side of fair, Juventus are 0 of 3 over at home with 0.6 expected goals against a game, and they are missing their three best creators. Against: Lazio have scored in all six, and last season's meeting in Turin was 2-2.
- 2Draw+287*Low
Fair 24.5%, ours 26.0%, edge +1.5; the algorithmic model has 33%. Two good defences. Against: the edge is inside de-vig error.
- 3Both teams to score: No-112*Low
Fair 50.0%, ours 53.0%, edge +3.0. Six clean sheets between them in twelve games. Overlaps the best bet on 1-0 and 2-0, so it is the same thesis. Against: neither side has failed to score this season.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
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*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.