Celta vs Alavés

Celta (9th, 8 points) have drawn five of eight and average only 0.91 xG per game. Borja Iglesias is out and joint top scorer Pablo Durán is a doubt. They lost 1-2 at home to Juventus on Thursday and go to Celtic next Thursday, so this is Thursday, Sunday, Thursday with a thin attack. Alavés (7th, 11 points) have scored once in their last three and are 0W 2D 1L away with 2 goals in three games; Lucas Boyé (5 goals) is their threat. Celta have also fixed their defence, conceding only 6 in eight. Everything points to a low-scoring game.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Celta team total Under 1.5-182*Med

   Fair 59.7%, our estimate 66% (one book). The lowest xG in the fixture, no Borja Iglesias, a doubt over Durán and Thursday-Sunday legs. Against: one book, a thin edge after the margin, and Celta scored five against Racing.

2. 2Under 2.5 goals-157*Low

   Fair 57.6%, our estimate 62%. Against: the algorithmic model leans over, and the last meeting here produced seven goals.

3. 3Draw+230*Low

   Fair 28.7%, our estimate 31%. Two of three models have the draw above 32% and Celta draw a lot. Against: 1-1 and 0-0 also cash ranks 1 and 2, the same low-scoring thesis.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.