Valencia vs Athletic Club

Valencia (19th, 5 points) sacked Corberán in September and appointed Javier Aguirre, who drew 2-2 at Racing in his first game. They are still 0W 1D 3L at home with 2 scored and 9 conceded. Athletic (10th, 8 points from six games) have not played a league match since September 19, after their game at Rayo was abandoned, and they are without Nico Williams and Sancet. Neither side scores freely: Valencia average 0.99 xG and Athletic have kept three clean sheets in their last four. Only one of the last five meetings had both teams scoring (1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0). The market prices both teams to score at a coin flip; we have No at 54%.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Both teams to score: No-107*Med

   Fair 49.0%, our estimate 54%. Four of the last five meetings had a clean sheet, Valencia average under one xG a game, and Athletic's defence is in form. Against: the model median (49.7%) gives almost no support. Playable to -115.

2. 2Athletic Draw No Bet-163*Low

   Fair 57.7%, our estimate 60% (one book). The models like Athletic more than the market. Against: Nico Williams and Sancet are out, the news models miss. Only at -145 or better.

3. 3Under 2.5 goals-138*Low

   Fair 54.8%, our estimate 57%. The fixture evidence is strong. Against: every model leans the other way and our number does not clear break-even at this price. Pass unless it reaches -125.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.