Real Betis vs Barcelona

Barcelona have won all ten games in all competitions, scored 34 in eight league games, and are 4-0 away with 17 scored and 3 conceded. Betis are the only side on this card who can match the form: third on 19 points, 4-0 at home with 8 scored and 2 conceded, including a 1-0 over Real Madrid. Barcelona go to PSG on Tuesday, and Raphinha and De Jong are at best bench options. The market has Barcelona winning by two or more at about 49%; we put it nearer 45%. Betis have covered +1.5 in 15 straight home games, and Barcelona's likely rotation lowers their ceiling. Betis are without Junior Firpo and Aitor Ruibal; Barcelona without Bardghji and Christensen.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Betis +1.5 (Asian handicap)-120*Med

   Fair 51.0%, our estimate 55% (one book). A 15-game home cover streak, a perfect home record and an opponent likely to rotate before PSG. Against: our 55% barely clears the 54.6% break-even. Only at -120 or better.

2. 2Draw+463*Low

   Fair 16.8%, our estimate 18.5%. Both models we weight most price the draw above the market. Against: Barcelona have not drawn a game this season.

3. 3Betis to win+488*Low

   Fair 16.1%, our estimate 17.5%. A thin edge on the side the venue split supports. Against: our own xG model gives Betis only 7.9%, and ranks 2 and 3 cannot both cash. Pick one, or neither.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.