Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee has scored 58 points in five games (11.6 a game), ranks 31st by offensive EPA, averages 4.51 yards per play, and has a -5 turnover margin. Indianapolis' defense is bad (27th by EPA, 6.2 yards per play allowed), which is why the books hang Tennessee's team total at 19. We think that number gives Tennessee too much: the Titans have not reached 19 often enough to justify a coin flip there, and the Colts' run game and the dome do not change that. Colts TE Tyler Warren is questionable (groin, added Friday). Lean: Titans held under 19, Colts cover a number under 7. Caveat: "an 0-5 team keeps losing" is the most popular bet on the board (Tennessee +260 is still one of the most bet underdog moneylines), and US sharps were reported on the over 44.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Tennessee team total Under 19-118*Med

   Fair 50.0%, ours 56.5%, edge 6.5 (thin market), break-even 54.1%. Why: 11.6 points a game, 46.2% red zone TD rate, the league's second worst offense by EPA. Case against: Indianapolis allows 6.2 yards per play and 27.6 points a game; Tyjae Spears (questionable) is Tennessee's best big play threat if he plays. Price: -118 (Book A). Stake: 0.5u.

2. 2IND -6.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.5%, ours 53.0%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: a 7 point win cashes here and pushes at -7. Case against: Indianapolis has a -6 turnover margin and its defense has not held anyone down; correlated with pick 1. Price: -110 (Book A) ; other book Book B -115. Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Under 44.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: both offenses average about 4.5 yards per play. Case against: sharp money was reported on the over at 44, and Indianapolis scores 24.8 a game. Combined cap for this game: 0.75u. Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.