Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wind is the story at Raymond James Stadium: a northeast breeze around 17 to 18 mph at kickoff, gusting into the high 20s on earlier forecasts. Both offenses are below average (Pittsburgh 21st by EPA per play, Tampa Bay 27th), Tampa Bay starts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for the third straight week behind a line allowing the third-highest sack rate, and the Buccaneers' run defense ranks 2nd in the league at 72.8 yards a game. DK Metcalf is questionable with an illness, with a late report suggesting he plays. The total has fallen all week from 44.5 to about 38.5, and the lean is the under, the strongest play on the card. This is the first NFL game we have carried as a card rather than in the weekly write-ups, and it is analysis only, kept out of the public track record.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Under 38.5 points-106*HighBest Bet 🔥

   The strongest play on the slate and the only one that clears the four-point bar in an efficient market. A sustained northeast wind near 17 to 18 mph, two bottom-twelve offenses by EPA, the best defense in the game against a rookie undrafted quarterback, and reverse line movement (the total has fallen all week against public over tickets). Our estimate is 54 percent against a 49 percent fair price, a five-point edge, break-even 51.5. Against it: the market has already moved six points for these reasons, and Tampa Bay's defense is missing its best safety.

2. 2Tampa Bay team total Under 19-121*Low

   Daniels in the wind against a defense allowing 32.8 percent on third down. Our estimate is 55 percent against a 50.6 fair, but it is a one-book number and the same thesis as the best bet, so cap the pair together. Against it: Tampa Bay has extra rest and scored 24 at Dallas with this quarterback.

3. 3Tampa Bay +2.5-105*Low

   In a low-total game every point is worth more, sharp money was reported on Tampa Bay +3, and the Buccaneers carry the better defense and a rest edge. Our estimate is 51.5 percent against a 49.5 fair, a thin two-point edge. Against it: our own rule is not to bet on a priced backup quarterback, and +2.5 sits on the wrong side of the key number 3.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.