Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Caleb Williams starts (reported Saturday; full practice all week on a hamstring he has called torn) and Michael Penix Jr. has no designation after his rib injury. The spread has done a round trip, CHI -3 to -1.5 in the US and to a pick'em at Book A, with sharp money on Atlanta. What is left is price: Book A has the Bears at -108 on the moneyline while US books sit at -115 to -118. The total went from 47.5 to 52.5 on 87% of tickets; sharps bought the over at 51 and the move is done. Lean: Bears, small, at the cheap price. Caveat: Williams has thrown only 55 passes this season, Chicago is without RB Kyle Monangai, LBs T.J. Edwards and Keyshaun Elliott and DE Dayo Odeyingbo, and the sharp side all week has been Atlanta.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Chicago moneyline-108*Med

   Fair 51.0%, ours 53.0%, edge 2.0, break-even 51.9%. Why: Williams confirmed, a defense allowing 26.0% on third down (2nd), and a price the US market does not offer. Case against: sharp money has been on Atlanta from +3 down to +1.5, and Atlanta's run game (166.8 yards a game, 2nd) is the matchup Chicago's depleted linebackers have to stop. Price: -108 (Book A) ; other book Book B -115. Stake: 0.5u.

2. 2Under 52.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: five points of mostly public movement from the 47.5 open; Chicago's red zone scoring rate is 42.9%. Case against: the sharp money that moved this was on the over at 51, and both teams run for over 165 yards a game, which keeps the clock moving but also the chains. Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Atlanta team total Under 26-117*Low

   Fair 49.7%, ours 54.0%, edge 4.3, break-even 53.9%. Why: Atlanta scores 23.8 a game and has not been near 26 against defenses that get off the field on third down. Case against: Chicago's defense is only 20th by EPA on one provider and is missing three front seven starters; correlated with pick 2 (combined cap 0.5u). Price: -117 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.