Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Real Madrid (4th, 18 points) are 4-0 at home with 13 scored and 2 conceded, but they have problems. Vinícius starts a four-match ban; Militão, Mendy, Rodrygo and Asencio are out. They came from 3-1 down to win 4-3 in Rome on Wednesday, host Leipzig this Wednesday and then play the Clásico, so rotation is likely. Sevilla (5th, 14 points) are unbeaten away (2W 2D, 8 scored) and have scored in all eight league games, though they are 15 games without a win against Madrid and lose striker Isaac Romero to suspension. Madrid's win price is fair and we have no view on the result. Our angle is Sevilla scoring against a depleted Madrid back line.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Both teams to score: Yes-120*Med

   Fair 51.5%, our estimate 55%. Sevilla have scored in 8 of 8, Madrid are short of senior centre backs and have a reason to rotate. Against: only one model prices it, and Madrid have kept clean sheets in at least two of four home games.

2. 2Sevilla +1.5 (Asian handicap)+120*Low

   Fair 42.3%, our estimate 45% (one book). The last five meetings were decided by 1, 2, 2, 2 and 1 goals. Against: Madrid win at home by almost three a game. Only at +125 or better.

3. 3Over 3.5 goals+102*Low

   Fair 46.6%, our estimate 48%. Several previews call 3-1. Against: the price is too short. Wait for +115.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.