New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

Two bad defenses on a clear, calm afternoon (6 mph wind, mid 50s): New Orleans allows 30.2 points a game, ranks last in success rate allowed and gives up 148.8 rushing yards a game; the Giants allow 45.6% on third down (27th). The Giants' tackles Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor are questionable, but Thomas is reported likely to play and the coach called both "basically full go." New Orleans lists Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave as questionable. Lean: points, with a small Giants lean at home. Caveat: the two published models split on the winner (one has NO 54.1%, the other NYG 53.7%), which is what a coin flip looks like, and "nearly all" of the US money is already on the over.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Over 46.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 53.0%, edge 3.0, break-even 52.4%. Why: two bottom ten defenses by EPA, no weather. Case against: the total dipped to 44.5 on Monday before public money brought it back; both offenses are below average by success rate (43.5% and 42.6%). Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2Giants team total Over 23-121*Low

   Fair 50.6%, ours 55.0%, edge 4.4, break-even 54.8%. Why: the Saints' run defense and third down defense against a Giants line expected to be mostly intact. Case against: Winston completes 57.6% and the Giants score 21.8 a game; correlated with pick 1. Price: -121 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Giants moneyline-105*Low

   Fair 49.7%, ours 51.5%, edge 1.8, break-even 51.2%. Why: home field, the better point differential (+3 against -33), and Book B's price. Case against: New Orleans has more offensive success than its record says and a 1.5 point spread swing would erase the case. Combined cap for this game: 0.5u. Price: -105 (Book B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.