Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Two defences in poor shape. Newcastle, under Matthias Jaissle since August, have conceded 13 in six, gone over 2.5 in five of six and reportedly gone 12 home league games without a clean sheet; Jaouen, Livramento and Elanga are out and Burn and Ramsey are short of fitness. Villa are 16th but just put six past Fenerbahçe on Wednesday, and they play again next Wednesday. Over 3.5 is the angle: four of Newcastle's six league games had four or more goals, and three of Villa's six did. The market prices Over 3.5 at a fair 39.2%.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Over 3.5 goals+140*Low

   Fair 39.2%, our estimate 44% (one book). Seven of the two teams' twelve league games had four or more goals and Newcastle's defensive absences are real. Against: the six-game sample and a tired Villa side.

2. 2Draw+270*Low

   Fair 25.6%, our estimate 27%. The algorithmic model has the draw at 43%. Against: a draw sits awkwardly with pick 1 unless it ends 2-2.

3. 3Newcastle Draw No Bet-150*Low

   Fair 57.3%, our estimate 60% (one book). Six days of rest against a Villa side on its third game in eight days. Against: the edge against the price is roughly zero, and Villa are unbeaten in the last three league meetings.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.