Fulham vs Hull City

Fulham are bottom with two points and no win, have conceded late goals in four of six, and Álvaro Arbeloa is reportedly two bad results from the sack. Hull are eighth with three clean sheets, the lowest possession share in the league (32.3%) and a long-ball game built to frustrate. The market still makes Fulham a 56.4% favourite and three credible models agree (52.7% to 58%). The underlying numbers explain why: through five games Fulham created 7.74 expected goals and scored 5, while Hull created 5.27 and scored 6. So the market is betting on regression in both directions, and that is reasonable. Where we disagree is the total: a low-possession away side, a nervous home side, and five Championship meetings with only one over 2.5.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Under 2.5 goals+111*Low

   Fair 44.8%, our estimate 49%. Hull's style, three Hull clean sheets and two models at 49% to 51% under. Against: both clubs are 3 of 6 on overs and Fulham's xG says the goals are coming.

2. 2Draw+310*Low

   Fair 23.1%, our estimate 25%. Hull have three draws and Fulham two. Against: Fulham have not held a lead or a level score late all season.

3. 3Both teams to score: No+105*Low

   Fair 45.8%, our estimate 48%. Same Hull clean sheet logic. Against: Fulham's games are 4 of 6 BTTS, and this overlaps heavily with pick 1, so stake one or the other.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.