Everton vs Chelsea

Fifth against sixth on ten points each, and the table hides how different these sides are. Everton are one of three unbeaten teams in the league (2-4-0), have kept three clean sheets in six, and have scored 8 and conceded 5. Chelsea are the opposite shape: 15 scored, 13 conceded, all six league games over 2.5 goals, no clean sheet and 22 Premier League games in a row conceding. Away from home they are 1-0-2 with 4 scored and 7 conceded, and they have won one of their last nine league visits to Everton without scoring on the last three. The market makes Chelsea a 43.9% favourite, which is a price for the squad, not the form. Our lean is Everton with draw protection.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Everton Draw No Bet+125*Med

   Fair 41.8%, our estimate 47%. Everton are unbeaten with three clean sheets and Chelsea have won one of nine league visits here. Against: Chelsea have 15 goals in six, and Palmer plus João Pedro make a 2-1 away win very live.

2. 2Draw+277*Low

   Fair 25.1%, our estimate 28%. Everton have drawn four of six. Against: Chelsea have drawn one of six and every one of their games went over 2.5, which is not a draw profile.

3. 3Chelsea team total Under 1.5-120*Low

   Fair 50.5%, our estimate 55% (one book). Everton concede 0.67 a game at home and Chelsea have blanked on three straight trips here. Against: Chelsea have scored two or more in four of six this season.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.