Leeds United vs Manchester United

Leeds have had eight days of rest and are unbeaten at home (5 scored, 2 conceded). United played at Atlético on Tuesday, go to Como on Wednesday, and are without Šeško, Dorgu and Ugarte, with Mazraoui doubtful and Shaw and Mainoo only possibles. The 1X2 is close to fair across the market and the credible models. The total is where the evidence lines up: both clubs have gone over 2.5 in only two of six league games, Leeds concede 0.83 a game, and United's attack loses its main striker. Two models have Under 2.5 at 47% and about 52%.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Under 2.5 goals+117*Med

   Fair 43.3%, our estimate 49%. Both teams are 2 of 6 on overs, and United have striker absences and midweek fatigue. Against: United's zero clean sheets and Leeds' 4 of 6 BTTS record.

2. 2Draw+250*Low

   Fair 27.1%, our estimate 29%. Both clubs have drawn three of six and the market makes this a near pick'em. Against: Leeds' home edge after a week's rest; this overlaps pick 1 on 0-0 and 1-1.

3. 3Manchester United team total Under 1.5-175*Low

   Fair 58.9%, our estimate 64% (one book). Leeds have conceded two at home in three games and United are missing Šeško. Against: the price leaves almost no margin.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.