Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers have the worst offense in the league by EPA (-0.21), score 16.8 a game, and are without OTs Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, S Derwin James and WR Tre Harris, among others. Kansas City is off its bye with Mahomes healthy, missing Rashee Rice and LT Josh Simmons. The spread came down from -8.5 to -7.5 with sharp money on the Chargers, so we do not lean hard on Kansas City's side. Where we see value is the Chargers' scoring: a 16.5 team total for an offense this injured, against the 8th defense by EPA, is still too high for us. Lean: Chargers held under 17. Caveat: the Chargers' defense is 6th by EPA and sharp money was on the under 42.5; a slow, low game where the Chargers sneak a late touchdown is the losing script for both our side and our total.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Chargers team total Under 16.5-120*Med

   Fair 50.3%, ours 56.0%, edge 5.7 (thin market), break-even 54.5%. Why: last by EPA and success rate (37.8%), two starting tackles out, a defense across the field that is top ten. Case against: 17 is the most common team score and this line loses on it; Herbert has run for 142 yards this season and can steal a touchdown on his own. Price: -120 (Book A). Stake: 0.5u.

2. 2KC -7.5-105*Low

   Fair 49.0%, ours 51.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 51.2%. Why: off the bye against a team missing four starters, and a point cheaper than the largest US book. Case against: sharp money took LAC +7.5 all week; correlated with pick 1. Price: -105 (Book B) ; other book Book A -106. Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Kansas City team total Over 24.5-112*Low

   Fair 48.8%, ours 53.0%, edge 4.2, break-even 52.8%. Why: 29.5 points a game, off a bye. Case against: the Chargers' defense allows 4.8 yards per play, tied with Kansas City's for best in this game, and Rice is out. Combined cap for this game: 0.75u (one thesis: Kansas City controls the game). Price: -112 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.