Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Two of the most extreme venue splits in the league. Getafe are 2W 2D 0L at home and have conceded 2; away from home they have lost all four without scoring. Rayo are 0W 1D 3L away and have conceded 12 in four. Rayo arrive in turmoil: their last home game against Athletic was abandoned on October 10 after fans protested against the club president, and their last completed league game was September 19. Getafe drew in Romania on Thursday but get four days of rest before Monday. The market has this as three near-equal thirds and makes Rayo a slight favourite; the models have Getafe slightly ahead, and we think the home split matters more than the market does.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Getafe Draw No Bet-105*Med

   Fair 48.0%, our estimate 52% (one book). The models lean Getafe, the venue splits lean Getafe hard, and Rayo's off-field chaos is something models cannot see. Against: the head-to-head points the other way.

2. 2Under 2.5 goals-200*Low

   Fair 62.7%, our estimate 64%. Six straight unders in the fixture. Against: at -200 our number is below break-even. Only at -175 or better.

3. 3Both teams to score: No-139*Low

   Fair 54.7%, our estimate 57%. Getafe both score and concede rarely. Against: Rayo have had both teams score in all seven games, and the price is short.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.