Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders

Buffalo has the best offense in the league by EPA (about +0.21) and the 30th defense, and comes off a Monday night overtime win in Los Angeles (the team stayed in Southern California all week). DJ Moore and Ed Oliver are questionable after limited Friday practices; RT Spencer Brown is cleared. Las Vegas has Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty without designation. Book A has BUF -4.5, the US market is -4.5 to -5.5, and Book B has no spread posted. Lean: Bills, small. Caveat: sharp money was reported on LV +5.5, Buffalo has committed 9 turnovers in its last three games, one local beat reporter thinks the Bills may rest both Moore and Oliver before next week's bye, and we could not find what made Book B pull its spread.

Top 3 picks

1. 1BUF -4.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0% (one book), ours 53.0%, edge 3.0, break-even 52.4%. Why: a point cheaper than the biggest US books, and a 5 point Buffalo win cashes here. Case against: the sharp side is Las Vegas, Buffalo is on a short week after an overtime game, and Book B's missing spread is unexplained. Price: -110 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2Bills moneyline-225*Low

   Fair 67.2%, ours 69.5%, edge 2.3, break-even 69.2%. Why: the US consensus is about -258; this is a cheaper way to own the same Buffalo win. Case against: same thesis as pick 1 (combined cap 0.5u), and at -225 one loss erases more than two wins; never a headline play. Price: -225 (Book A) ; other book Book B -233. Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Under 53.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: 87% of the handle is on the over and the total has risen from 47.5 to 53.5. Case against: Buffalo scores 32.8 and allows 28.2 a game, the Bills are 4-1 to the over, and this is a fade of the public, not a read of the game. Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.