Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Brighton are third with 18 scored and 5 conceded, four clean sheets in six and five straight wins in all competitions. The derby is a different animal: Palace are unbeaten in the last four meetings (three wins, one draw), Brighton have not won it since February 2024, and only 11 of 25 meetings went over 2.5. Palace arrive without Disasi (suspended), with Mateta a hamstring doubt, a new manager in Pierre Sage and a 3-2 defeat in Lyon on Thursday. The market makes Brighton 62.0%; the credible models sit at 51.8% to 61%, so the favourite is if anything slightly overpriced. Under 2.5 is priced at a fair 39.2% while two models have it at 46.8% and 51%.

Top 3 picks

1. 1Under 2.5 goals+140*Med

   Fair 39.2%, our estimate 45% (one book). Derby history (11 of 25 over), Palace's striker a doubt, and two models near or above 47% under. Against: Brighton's home scoring rate.

2. 2Crystal Palace Draw No Bet+320*Low

   Fair 22.2%, our estimate 25% (one book). Palace's derby record and a slightly overpriced favourite. Against: a Thursday trip to France and a striker who may not start.

3. 3Both teams to score: No+117*Low

   Fair 43.0%, our estimate 48%. Brighton have four clean sheets and Palace may be without their top scorer. Against: Palace are 4 of 6 BTTS, and this overlaps pick 1.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.