Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Arizona has allowed 31 or more points four straight weeks (32.4 a game, worst in the league), traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston and is without RB Jeremiyah Love; Jacoby Brissett starts. The Rams are on a short week after an overtime loss to Buffalo on Monday night and start 36 year old David Quessenberry at LT for the suspended Alaric Jackson; CB Trent McDuffie is questionable. The Rams' defense (10th by EPA, 4.9 yards per play allowed) against an Arizona offense at 4.51 yards per play is the matchup. Lean: Rams, and Arizona held under 20. Caveat: 12 points is a lot to lay on a short week with a backup tackle protecting Stafford, and Arizona's offense has been better than its record (16th by EPA).

Top 3 picks

1. 1Arizona team total Under 19.5-120*Low

   Fair 50.3%, ours 55.0%, edge 4.7, break-even 54.5%. Why: no Love, no Harrison, a top ten defense across the field. Case against: Arizona scores 21.6 a game and Brissett has 9 TD in five games. Price: -120 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2LAR -12-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: the worst scoring defense in the league, and Book B gives the half point. Case against: short week, a backup LT, and a line that has already come down 1.5 points from 14. Price: -110 (Book B) ; other book Book A -12.5. Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Under 51.5-110*Low

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: the total rose 4 points from 47.5 on a team that just lost its best skill players. Case against: Arizona's defense makes a Rams 35 entirely possible on its own; correlated with pick 1 (combined cap 0.5u). Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.