Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.
Bologna vs Inter
Inter top the table (16 points, 18 goals) but arrive off a 4-3 home defeat to Club Brugge on Tuesday, their fourth straight European loss, and without Lautaro Martínez (out until late November), Curtis Jones and Stones, with Pavard also listed injured. Bologna are 14th and changed coach in September (Palladino for Tedesco), but their 5.7 expected goals against is the second-best defensive record in the league behind Juventus. The market prices Inter at 61% and an Inter win by two or more at about 39%. With Lautaro out, Bologna defending above their position and Inter's midweek, we think the two-goal margin is overpriced. No model predicts an Inter win by two or more.
📊 Los números
Bologna Forma (últimos 5): W-D-L-D-L (14th, 5 pts)
Inter Forma (últimos 5): W-D-W-W-W (1st, 16 pts)
| Dato | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| xG / xGA por partido (últimos 6) | 1.42 / 0.95 | 2.8 / 1.12 |
| Goles a favor / en contra por partido | 0.83 / 1.17 | 3 / 1.33 |
| Más de 2.5 goles (temporada) | 33% | 83% |
| Ambos anotan (temporada) | 50% | 67% |
| Porterías en cero (últimos 4) | 0 | 1 |
| Local/Visita | Home: 0-2-1, 3 scored, 4 conceded | Away: 1-1-0, 3 scored, 2 conceded |
| Historial directo (últimos 5) | 1 win in the last 5 meetings | 1 win in the last 5 meetings |
Nuestra lectura: Bologna's defence and the head-to-head (one Inter win in five, none in Bologna) both argue against a comfortable Inter win. The case against: Bologna have scored five in six and may not need to concede much to lose.
Las 3 mejores jugadas
- 1Bologna +1 (Asian handicap)-115*Media
Wins on a Bologna win or draw, pushes on an Inter one-goal win. Market implies Inter by 2+ at 39%; we have 32%, edge about +8 (one book). Against: Inter's attack is the best in Italy.
- 2Under 2.5 goals+121*Baja
Fair 42.9%, ours 46.0%, edge +3.1, model median 46.3%. Bologna games are 2 of 6 over and Inter lack their captain. Against: Inter games are 5 of 6 over, and two of the last three meetings ended 3-3 and 3-1.
- 3Draw+315*Baja
Fair 22.9%, ours 25.0%, edge +2.1. The small, higher-payout version of pick 1. Against: Inter have drawn once in six league games.
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*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.
*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.