Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
New York is home and desperate at 0-2 behind Max Fried, the clearly better arm by FIP (2.70 to Martinez's 4.01), with the better bullpen (3.13 to 3.99) and the better run differential (+138 to +86), against a Tampa Bay lineup that posts just .679 OPS versus left-handers walking into a left-handed ace. Caveat: Tampa Bay already leads 2-0 having won twice, Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.30 BB/9) will not beat himself, and the short porch keeps his 22 home runs and New York's own bats live, so a one-swing game is always in play.
📊 The numbers
Park and weather: Yankee Stadium: hitter-friendly with a short right-field porch that favors left-handed power, outdoor night game (AL Division Series Game 3, Tampa Bay leads 2-0, New York facing elimination).
| Stat | Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Nick Martinez (RHP) | Max Fried (LHP) |
| SP ERA | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| SP WHIP | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| SP K/9 | 5.45 | 8.31 |
| SP FIP | 4.01 | 2.7 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 3.99 | 3.13 |
| Form (last 10) | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Run differential | +86 | +138 |
| Offense vs starter's hand (OPS) | .679 vs LHP | .714 vs RHP |
Our read: New York is home and desperate at 0-2 behind Max Fried, the clearly better arm by FIP (2.70 to Martinez's 4.01), with the better bullpen (3.13 to 3.99) and the better run differential (+138 to +86), against a Tampa Bay lineup that posts just .679 OPS vs left-handers walking into a left-handed ace. Caveat: trust FIP over ERA cuts both ways here, Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.30 BB/9) will not beat himself, the short porch keeps Martinez's 22 home runs and New York's own bats live, and Tampa Bay already leads 2-0, which is exactly how a series gets closed out.
Top 3 picks
- 1Yankees ML-168*HighBet of the Day 🔥
Max Fried is the clearly better arm by FIP (2.70 to Martinez's 4.01), New York has the best bullpen on the slate (3.13 to 3.99) and the better run differential (+138 to +86), and Tampa Bay posts just .679 OPS versus left-handers walking into a left-handed ace at home in an elimination game, de-vigged about 60 percent to a committed estimate nearer 64; caveat Tampa Bay already leads 2-0, Martinez (3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.30 BB/9) will not beat himself, and the short porch keeps his 22 home runs and New York's own bats live.
- 2Under 7+100*Med
Two low-WHIP starters (Fried 0.99, Martinez 1.09) at a low 7 total, with Fried's extreme home-run suppression (0.32 per 9) and New York's elite pen (3.13) behind him, a plus-money under de-vigged about 48 percent to a committed estimate nearer 51; caveat the market leans over here, and the short porch plus Martinez's 22 home runs and New York's .714 versus RHP mean the Yankees' bats alone can clear it.
- 3Under 0.5 runs, 1st inning-143*Low
Fried (0.99 WHIP) and Martinez (1.09 WHIP, 1.30 BB/9) both work clean firsts, a scoreless-first lean de-vigged about 54 percent; caveat this first-inning price is single-book, the short porch is live on one swing, and both lineups open with dangerous hitters.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.