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MLB · 4:40pm CST · Citizens Bank Park

Dodgers @ Phillies

Eric Lauer''s 6.11 FIP and Aaron Nola''s 5.00 FIP are two of the three worst on the board, both home-run driven, in the wrong park for it; the caveat is both bullpens are usable and Philadelphia is 19-7 in one-run games.

📊 The numbers

Park & weather: Citizens Bank Park, the most home-run-friendly park in the National League, open-air with no roof, warm summer evening.

StatDodgersPhillies
StarterEric Lauer (LHP)Aaron Nola (RHP)
SP ERA4.815.68
SP WHIP1.281.45
SP K/95.529.44
SP FIP6.115
Bullpen ERA (season)3.764.38
Form (last 10)4-65-5
Run differential+153-11

Our read: Eric Lauer''s 6.11 FIP and Aaron Nola''s 5.00 FIP are two of the three worst on the board, both home-run driven, in the wrong park for it; the caveat is both bullpens are usable and Philadelphia is 19-7 in one-run games.

Top 3 picks

  1. 1Over 9.5-105*High

    A combined 11.11 FIP between the starters in a home-run park.

  2. 2Dodgers ML-119*Med

    +153 differential, .782 OPS against righties, and the better bullpen.

  3. 3Dodgers -1.5+127*Low

    Plausible in a high-scoring game, but Philadelphia is 19-7 in one-run games.

*Odds subject to change — confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.