Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles leads 2-1 and can close it out behind Tyler Glasnow, the better arm by season FIP (2.79 to Mahle's aggregated 4.04, with 11.92 K/9 and a 0.95 WHIP), and it is the better team overall (+201 run differential to +116, 100-62, 8-2). Caveat: Tyler Mahle owns a 1.99 ERA in 9 starts since joining Atlanta, Atlanta is home and desperate with the better bullpen (3.44 to 3.74) and hits right-handers fine (.730 versus RHP), so this is closer to a coin flip than the price in a single elimination game, and the cleanest value is the Dodgers at plus money on the run line, not a low total.
📊 The numbers
Park and weather: Truist Park: roughly neutral with a slight hitter and home-run lean, outdoor night game (NL Division Series Game 4, Los Angeles leads 2-1, Atlanta facing elimination).
| Stat | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Starter | Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | Tyler Mahle (RHP) |
| SP ERA | 3.53 | 3.99 |
| SP WHIP | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| SP K/9 | 11.92 | 8.28 |
| SP FIP | 2.79 | 4.04 |
| Bullpen ERA (season) | 3.74 | 3.44 |
| Form (last 10) | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Run differential | +201 | +116 |
| Offense vs starter's hand (OPS) | .766 vs RHP | .730 vs RHP |
Our read: Los Angeles leads 2-1 and can close it out behind Tyler Glasnow, the better arm by season FIP (2.79 to Mahle's aggregated 4.04, 11.92 K/9, 0.95 WHIP), and it is the better team overall (+201 run differential to +116, 100-62, 8-2). Caveat: Tyler Mahle owns a 1.99 ERA in 9 starts since joining Atlanta, Atlanta is home and desperate with the better bullpen (3.44 to 3.74) and hits right-handers fine (.730 vs RHP), so this is closer to a coin flip than the price in a single elimination game, and the cleanest value is the Dodgers at plus money on the run line.
Top 3 picks
- 1Dodgers -1.5+117*Med
The clearly better team (+201 run differential to +116, 100-62, 8-2) at plus money to win by two or more, with Glasnow's strikeout stuff (11.92 K/9, 2.79 FIP) able to protect a lead, de-vigged about 44 percent to a committed estimate nearer 46; caveat elimination games run tight and one-run, Mahle owns a 1.99 ERA in 9 starts as a Brave and Atlanta's bullpen (3.44) is better than Los Angeles's (3.74), so a one-run game or an Atlanta win is very live.
- 2Under 7.5-117*Med
Glasnow (0.95 WHIP, 11.92 K/9) and an in-form Mahle (1.99 ERA as a Brave) point to two quality starts in front of solid bullpens, de-vigged about 52 percent to the under; caveat Los Angeles hits right-handers hard (.766 versus RHP), Truist leans slightly to the long ball, and Mahle's aggregated 4.04 FIP and 20 home runs say he is more hittable than his Atlanta ERA.
- 3Under 0.5 runs, 1st inning-150*Low
Glasnow and an in-form Mahle both work clean firsts, a scoreless-first lean de-vigged about 55 percent; caveat this first-inning price is single-book, both lineups open with dangerous hitters, and at -150 one swing busts it.
*Odds subject to change. Confirm current odds at your sportsbook before betting.