Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Toluca vs Atlético San Luis

The main total here is 3.5, not 2.5, and the books are right to set it there. Toluca home games have produced 23 goals in five (4.6 a game); every one went over 2.5 and four of five went over 3.5. Toluca have also conceded three in each of their last three league games, and San Luis road games went over 3.5 in three of five. On the side, Toluca are 71% fair and unbeaten in six against San Luis; we have no quarrel. The disagreement is the 3.5 line: the algorithmic model's 3.15 projected goals converts to only 39% for four or more. We side with the fixture evidence: both venue splits plus Toluca's recent defensive collapse, which a season-long model averages away.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Over 3.5 goals+102*Media

   Fair 46.9%, ours 51%, the only model pricing it at 38.6%. Toluca home games average 4.6 goals and they have conceded nine in three. Against: the model is against us by eight points and our estimate rests on two five-game samples.

2. 2San Luis team total Over 1.5+250*Baja

   Fair 26.3%, ours 30% (one book). San Luis score 1.6 a game away and Toluca have conceded nine in their last three. Against: same thesis as pick 1, and San Luis have scored one or fewer in the last five meetings.

3. 3Both teams to score: Yes (only at -150 or better)-156*Baja

   Fair 56.7%, ours 60%. Toluca home games have had both sides score in four of five. Against: at the average price the overround eats the edge.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.