Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Jagoba Arrasate's first game back in charge after Osasuna sacked Luis Miguel Ramis on Monday, following four defeats in five and 17 goals conceded. Racing are promoted, have the league's worst defence (23 conceded, 2.13 xGA per game) and have lost all four away games, conceding 16. They can score, though: Zabiri has 7, and seven of their eight games went over 2.5. The venue splits contradict each other. Racing's four away games produced 5, 9, 5 and 1 goals; Osasuna's four home games produced 2, 2, 1 and 0. The market sits between the two at 57.7% over 2.5, while the algorithmic model (69%) and our xG model (67%) are well above it.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Over 3.5 goals+155*Baja

   Fair 37.0%, our estimate 40% (one book). The only goals price where our number clears break-even, and Racing's away games average 5 goals. Against: Osasuna have scored 2 at home all season.

2. 2Over 2.5 goals-159*Baja

   Fair 57.7%, our estimate 61%. The models like it. Against: at this price our number does not clear break-even. Wait for -150 or better.

3. 3Both teams to score: Yes-184*Baja

   Fair 60.6%, our estimate 62%. Against: too expensive, and the same thesis as rank 2. Only at -160 or better.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.