Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid

Atlético are second on 19 points and have won four straight league games, beating Real Madrid 2-1 and Osasuna 4-0 along the way. They have scored 18 in eight, and seven of their eight league games went over 2.5. That record is why the books price this game at 54.7% over. Our numbers do not agree. Atlético's xG is 1.76 per game against 2.25 actual goals, so they are finishing well above their chances, and Espanyol (12th, 8 points) allow a respectable 1.16 xGA per game. All three models we could measure have the under at 48% to 53%, against a fair 45.3%. Simeone also has a Champions League trip to Stuttgart on Tuesday, and Atlético have one win in the last six meetings, with four draws. Espanyol are without Jofre Carreras and Kike García.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Under 2.5 goals+109*Media

   Fair 45.3%, our estimate 49%, model median 51.3%. Atlético are finishing above their xG. Against: their games have gone over in seven of eight. Playable to +100.

2. 2Atlético team total Under 1.5+100*Baja

   Fair 46.3%, our estimate 51% (one book). The same regression argument through Atlético's own goals. Against: only one model prices it, and Atlético have scored two or more in four straight.

3. 3Draw+295*Baja

   Fair 24.0%, our estimate 26%. Four draws in the last six meetings. Against: the edge barely clears the margin, and a 1-1 cashes all three picks here, so treat ranks 2 and 3 as alternatives to rank 1.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.