Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

New England activated A.J. Brown from IR on Saturday; TreVeyon Henderson and LT Will Campbell are questionable but trending toward playing. The Jets are without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Joseph Ossai and Dylan Parham. The US market is split between NE -7 and NE -7.5 (three large US books at -7.5) with 71 to 91% of the spread money on New England; both Mexican books hang NE -7. Our base file liked the Jets only at +7.5, which nobody offers here. Lean: New England at -7, and a Jets offense without its best back held under 17. Caveat: the Jets' defense is good (3rd in yards per play allowed per one source) and Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in five games; this is the kind of game that ends 20-14.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1NE -7-110*Baja

   Fair 50.5%, ours 53.5% (pushes removed), edge 3.0, break-even 52.4%. Why: half the US market is at -7.5, so a 7 point win is a push here and a loss there. Case against: 7 is the second most common margin and we only own it if we take this exact number; the Jets' defense is the best unit on the field. Price: -110 (Book A) ; other book Book B -115. Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2Jets team total Under 17-109*Baja

   Fair 48.2%, ours 52.5%, edge 4.3, break-even 52.2%. Why: no Hall or Mitchell, 4.83 yards per play, 18.6 points a game before the injuries. Case against: Book A shades the over to -127, which means the book expects 17 or more; a push on 17 is very possible. Price: -109 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Under 43.5-110*Baja

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: 57 to 69% of the US money on the under while most tickets are on the over; calm weather but two defenses allowing under 20 a game. Case against: Maye has thrown for 374 yards in a game this season and New England scored 45 last week; correlated with pick 2 (combined cap 0.5u). Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.