Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley makes his second straight start (24 of 32, 201 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in the overtime win at Atlanta). The market moved from a midweek BAL -5.5 peak to -3 and the total from 41.5 to 39.5. Our rule after three weeks of data is not to bet against a priced backup, and not to bet on one either, so we stay off the Baltimore side. The case we like is Cleveland's offense: 26th by EPA, 4.65 yards per play, 30.6% on third down, 19 sacks taken by Watson, with RB Quinshon Judkins questionable. Lean: Cleveland held under 18. Caveat: Baltimore's defense is only middle of the pack (16th by EPA) and the Ravens are without C Cam Jurgens, so a short field or two can hand Cleveland a 20 point day.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Cleveland team total Under 17.5-120*Baja

   Fair 50.3%, ours 55.5%, edge 5.2 (thin market), break-even 54.5%. Why: 18.6 points a game, bottom six offense by EPA and success rate (39.7%). Case against: 17 is the single most common team score and this line wins there only by half a point; one Huntley turnover in his own territory breaks it. Price: -120 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2Under 39.5-110*Baja

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: a backup QB on one side and a bottom six offense on the other. Case against: 78% of public tickets are on the over and Baltimore still scores 29.2 a game; correlated with pick 1 (combined cap 0.5u). Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3CLE +3-105*Baja

   Fair 49.0%, ours 51.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 51.2%. Why: home underdog on the 3 at a cheaper price than Book A (-106) and the US standard (-105 to -115 on the Baltimore side). Case against: this is the closest thing on the card to betting against a priced backup, which our own notes say has not worked; Huntley has won outright on the road already. Price: -105 (Book B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.