Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Málaga vs Real Sociedad

Málaga are bottom and winless (0W 4D 4L, 4 goals scored), but at home they have drawn three of four and conceded only 5. Real Sociedad are sixth on 13 points but have conceded 15 in eight. They drew 1-1 in Belgium on Thursday, play in Norway next Thursday, and are without Pablo Marín (suspended) and Aramburu; Oyarzabal has yet to score this season. The market prices Real Sociedad at 43.9%, and the models straddle that number (54%, 45.6% and 40.2%). The totals models split the same way. Our honest read is no bet: every market we tested is within 2 points of fair, inside the bookmaker margin.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Under 2.5 goals (lean only, at +110 or better)+100*Baja

   Fair 47.2%, our estimate 49%, break-even 50% at evens. Málaga have the joint-fewest goals in the league and Real Sociedad have Thursday legs on both sides. Against: Real Sociedad's games are 6 of 8 over.

2. 2Draw+245*Baja

   Fair 27.5%, our estimate 28.5%. Málaga have drawn three of four at home. Against: the model median is below the market. Only at +260 or better.

3. 3Real Sociedad Draw No Bet-167*Baja

   Fair 58.4%, our estimate 60% (one book). Against: the price is too short. Only at -145 or better.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.