Por ahora el análisis de este partido está en inglés. La versión en español llega pronto.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Dallas has the worst defense in the league by EPA (+0.19, 6.4 yards per play, 52.6% on third down) and a top ten offense (47.9% success rate), and comes in on 10 days of rest with CeeDee Lamb off the injury report. Green Bay is without DTs Javon Hargrave (season ending Achilles) and Jonathan Ford (IR), plays without Micah Parsons (PUP) and Josh Jacobs (still on the Commissioner Exempt List until Monday), and its offense converts 27.6% on third down. The market is a near coin flip (GB -1, total 53.5 with 92% of the money on the over). One public power model makes Dallas a 52% favorite. Lean: Dallas at even money, and Dallas points. Caveat: Jordan Love threw for 367 yards against Chicago last week, and the Dallas defense has given every opponent a path to 27 points.

Las 3 mejores jugadas

1. 1Dallas moneyline+100*Baja

   Fair 48.8%, ours 50.5%, edge 1.7, break-even 50.0%. Why: rest, Lamb healthy, and a Green Bay front missing three defensive linemen and its best pass rusher. Case against: Dallas' defense is the worst in football and Green Bay's defense is 11th; the edge is inside de-vig error. Price: +100 (Book B) ; other book Book A -106. Stake: 0.25u.

2. 2Dallas team total Over 26.5-121*Baja

   Fair 50.6%, ours 55.0%, edge 4.4, break-even 54.8%. Why: 27.6 points a game, now facing a depleted interior line. Case against: Green Bay allows only 4.7 yards per play, best in this game; 27 is a landing number this line needs to beat. Price: -121 (Book A). Stake: 0.25u.

3. 3Over 53.5-110*Baja

   Fair 50.0%, ours 52.5%, edge 2.5, break-even 52.4%. Why: the worst defense in the league against a Green Bay offense that just put up 31. Case against: 92% of the money is already on the over and the total has climbed 3 points; this is the public side. Correlated with pick 2 (combined cap 0.5u). Price: -110 (Book A or B). Stake: 0.25u.

*Los momios pueden cambiar. Confirma el momio vigente en tu casa de apuestas antes de apostar.