Jacksonville is a small favorite in a low total, roughly 22.5 to 20, so neither team projects to much more than 2 offensive touchdowns. Houston plays without David Montgomery, which hands the backfield to Woody Marks, and Jacksonville has the best red zone defense in this group (touchdowns on only 33% of trips). Jacksonville's passing game produced 10 of its 14 offensive touchdowns, but Houston has not allowed a single receiving touchdown to a running back or tight end; all six went to wide receivers. The caveat: Jacksonville's new left tackle and a neutral site make this one hard to script.

• Red zone usage. Marks scored on both of his carries inside the 10 and played 56 of 66 snaps in Week 5. Bhayshul Tuten has 3 of Jacksonville's 5 carries inside the 5; Chris Rodriguez has 4 carries inside the 10.
• Defense vs position. Houston has allowed all 6 passing touchdowns to receivers and 5 rushing. Jacksonville has allowed only 3 rushing and 4 passing (2 to receivers, 2 to tight ends).
• Scoring streaks. Parker Washington has scored in 3 of 5 games (2 last week), all from 17 yards or more. Houston has scored a rushing touchdown in 4 of 5 games. Nico Collins has 3 TDs in his 3 starts.
• Game script. Close and low scoring. Houston leans on Marks because Jacksonville allows 2.9 yards per carry and Houston has no other healthy back with a carry. Marvin Harrison Jr. debuts after a trade, on limited snaps per his new coach.

1. 1.Woody Marks HOU RB47%

   Sole lead back with Montgomery out; 2 of 2 inside the 10 converted, and Houston has scored on the ground in 4 of 5 games.

2. 2.Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB41%

   Jacksonville's goal line back (3 of 5 carries inside the 5), against a defense that has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns.

3. 3.Parker Washington JAX WR34%

   Team touchdown leader (4) and Houston gives up its passing touchdowns only to receivers.

4. 4.Chris Rodriguez JAX RB25%

   Short yardage partner to Tuten: 4 carries inside the 10, scored in Weeks 3 and 4.

También en la mezcla: Nico Collins (HOU WR, 22%), Jakobi Meyers (JAX WR, 22%), Brian Thomas (JAX WR, 18%).

Baltimore is favored by about 3.5 with Tyler Huntley at quarterback (Lamar Jackson is out), roughly 22 to 19. Baltimore's offense still runs through Derrick Henry: he has 20 of the team's 23 carries inside the 10 and has scored in every game. Cleveland's defense is the puzzle: it has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown all season but 10 passing, 3 of them to tight ends. Cleveland's own offense scores rarely (45.5% in the red zone) and its tight end Harold Fannin has turned all 3 of his red zone targets into touchdowns.

• Red zone usage. Henry: 20 carries inside the 10, 7 rushing TDs. Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers lead Baltimore with 5 red zone targets each. Cleveland's Quinshon Judkins has 4 carries and 3 targets inside the 10; Fannin 3 red zone targets, 3 TDs.
• Defense vs position. Cleveland has allowed 1 rushing TD and 10 passing (7 to receivers, 3 to tight ends). Baltimore has allowed 6 rushing and 5 passing (3 to tight ends, 0 to backs).
• Scoring streaks. Henry has scored in all 5 games (8 total, a 3 TD game in Week 1). Baltimore has a rushing touchdown in all 5 games. Denzel Boston's 3 TDs all came from 29 yards or more; he is 0 for 4 in the red zone.
• Game script. Baltimore leads modestly and runs. With Matthew Hibner out, Andrews and rookie Josh Cuevas take all the tight end snaps, which matters against a defense that gives up tight end scores.

1. 1.Derrick Henry BAL RB56%

   Scored in all 5 games with 87% of Baltimore's carries inside the 10. Raised from the model's 51%, which leans on Cleveland allowing only 1 rushing TD; we trust Henry's usage more than one defensive split.

2. 2.Quinshon Judkins CLE RB (Q)37%

   Cleveland's lead back with 7 combined touches inside the 10; questionable with an ankle (limited Friday), so his chance is discounted.

3. 3.Zay Flowers BAL WR32%

   Co-leader in red zone targets (5) with 2 TDs; Cleveland gives up its scores through the air.

4. 4.Mark Andrews BAL TE31%

   5 red zone targets and the tight end snaps to himself with Hibner out, against a defense that has allowed 3 tight end TDs.

También en la mezcla: Harold Fannin (CLE TE, 27%), Denzel Boston (CLE WR, 22%), Rashod Bateman (BAL WR, 20%).

The lowest total of the week (38.5) after Jalen Hurts was ruled out. Carolina is favored by 3.5, roughly 21 to 17.5. Philadelphia is also without Saquon Barkley, Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby, so Dameon Pierce starts at running back for Tanner McKee's first start of the season. Carolina's run game belongs to Chuba Hubbard and gets a Philadelphia defense that has allowed a rushing touchdown in 4 of 5 games. The caveat: with two backups and a 38.5 total, this game could easily produce only three or four touchdowns in total.

• Red zone usage. Hubbard has 6 of Carolina's 8 carries inside the 10 plus 2 receiving TDs from inside the 10. Tetairoa McMillan leads Carolina with 5 targets inside the 10. Darius Cooper has scored on 3 of his 4 red zone targets for Philadelphia.
• Defense vs position. Philadelphia has allowed 7 rushing TDs and 6 passing, all 6 to receivers. Carolina has allowed 7 rushing and 5 passing (4 to tight ends) and a 72.7% red zone touchdown rate, the worst in this game.
• Scoring streaks. Hubbard has scored in 3 of 4 games (5 TDs, two 2 TD games). Cooper has 4 TDs in 4 games played. Dallas Goedert scored twice in Week 1, none since.
• Game script. Carolina leads and runs; Philadelphia, with a backup at quarterback, likely leans on short throws. Hurts took 5 of the team's carries inside the 10, which now go to Pierce or McKee.

1. 1.Chuba Hubbard CAR RB53%

   The goal line back (6 of 8 carries inside the 10) against a defense that has allowed a rushing TD in 4 of 5 games.

2. 2.Dameon Pierce PHI RB38%

   The only healthy back with carries this season, so he inherits the goal line by default. Lowered from the model's 46%: 11 carries all season, a backup quarterback, and the lowest total of the week.

3. 3.Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR32%

   Carolina's red zone target (5 inside the 10) against a defense that gives up its passing TDs only to receivers.

4. 4.Jalen Coker CAR WR24%

   4 targets inside the 10 and a 2 TD game in Week 1.

También en la mezcla: Dallas Goedert (PHI TE, 19%), Darius Cooper (PHI WR, 17%), Dontayvion Wicks (PHI WR, 16%).

One of the higher totals of the week (about 51) and close to a pick'em, roughly 26 to 25. Both offenses score on the ground: Chicago has 10 rushing touchdowns against 4 passing, Atlanta 8 against 4. Kyle Monangai is out, which leaves Chicago's carries near the goal line to D'Andre Swift. Atlanta's Bijan Robinson has 10 of the team's 13 carries inside the 10, but Brian Robinson Jr. has scored 4 times on only 5 red zone carries. Caleb Williams is listed as questionable but practiced fully on Friday and is expected to return; he ran in two touchdowns in Week 1.

• Red zone usage. Swift: 15 carries inside the 10 and 8 inside the 5 (3 TDs). Bijan: 10 carries inside the 10. Luther Burden leads Chicago with 7 red zone targets; Drake London has 0 TDs on 37 targets.
• Defense vs position. Atlanta has allowed 9 passing TDs (3 to tight ends, 2 to backs) and only 3 rushing. Chicago has allowed 5 rushing and 6 passing (5 to receivers, none to tight ends).
• Scoring streaks. Bijan has scored in 3 of 5 games (two 2 TD games). Brian Robinson Jr. scored 3 times in Week 4. Swift scored 3 times in Week 1 and again last week. Chicago has a rushing TD in 4 of 5 games.
• Game script. A back and forth game indoors. Both teams prefer to run near the goal line; Atlanta converts 69% of red zone trips, Chicago only 43%.

1. 1.Bijan Robinson ATL RB68%

   77% of Atlanta's carries inside the 10, scored in 3 of 5 games, in one of the highest totals of the week.

2. 2.D'Andre Swift CHI RB65%

   Monangai is out, so Swift gets the goal line work alone; 8 carries inside the 5 this season.

3. 3.Brian Robinson Jr. ATL RB35%

   The short yardage partner: 4 TDs on 5 red zone carries.

4. 4.Luther Burden CHI WR32%

   Chicago's red zone target leader (7) with Williams back.

También en la mezcla: Jahan Dotson (ATL WR, 24%), Drake London (ATL WR, 23%), Colston Loveland (CHI TE, 20%).

A pick'em, roughly 23.5 to 22. The Saints' defense has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, at least one in every game, but the Giants have scored only 1 rushing touchdown all season. New York's touchdowns come through Isaiah Likely (4 TDs, 41% of the team's red zone targets) and Malik Nabers, and tight end Theo Johnson is out, which concentrates the position on Likely. New Orleans scores on 81% of red zone trips, and its tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant have 6 of its 9 passing touchdowns.

• Red zone usage. Likely: 7 red zone targets. Cam Skattebo: 5 of the Giants' 9 carries inside the 10. Kendre Miller leads New Orleans with 5 carries inside the 10; Juwan Johnson has 5 targets inside the 10.
• Defense vs position. New Orleans has allowed 10 rushing TDs and 8 passing (6 to receivers, 2 to tight ends). The Giants have allowed 5 rushing and 9 passing, with a 69% red zone TD rate.
• Scoring streaks. Likely scored twice in Week 1 and twice in Week 5. Nabers has scored in 2 straight games. Fant has 3 TDs on 3 red zone targets. The Giants scored no offensive TDs in Weeks 2 and 3.
• Game script. Even game. The Giants' run game is the obvious matchup against a defense that cannot stop it, even though the Giants have not finished drives on the ground.

1. 1.Cam Skattebo NYG RB42%

   The volume back against a defense that has allowed a rushing TD in all 5 games; 5 carries inside the 10.

2. 2.Isaiah Likely NYG TE39%

   4 TDs and 41% of the Giants' red zone targets, with Theo Johnson out.

3. 3.Malik Nabers NYG WR35%

   6 red zone targets and touchdowns in 2 straight games.

4. 4.Kendre Miller NO RB32%

   Leads New Orleans in carries inside the 10, with Alvin Kamara questionable (back) and Travis Etienne on injured reserve.

También en la mezcla: Juwan Johnson (NO TE, 29%), Devaughn Vele (NO WR, 28%), Alvin Kamara (NO RB, 24%).

New England is favored by about a touchdown, roughly 25 to 18. The Jets are without Breece Hall, who had two thirds of their carries inside the 10, so Braelon Allen takes over the backfield. New England's passing touchdowns are spread across six receivers, which makes its top scoring options its backfield and quarterback. TreVeyon Henderson is listed as questionable but has been limited all week with reports that he could miss time, and A.J. Brown is questionable in his return window from injured reserve.

• Red zone usage. Rhamondre Stevenson has 44% of New England's carries inside the 10; Drake Maye has 3 carries inside the 10. Allen leads the Jets with 4 red zone targets; Garrett Wilson has 3 TDs.
• Defense vs position. New England has allowed 5 rushing TDs (one in each of the last 3 games) and 6 passing (5 to receivers). The Jets' defense ranks 6th by EPA and has allowed 4 rushing and 6 passing.
• Scoring streaks. Stevenson scored in Weeks 4 and 5. Wilson has scored in 3 of 5. DeMario Douglas scored twice last week and Romeo Doubs twice in Week 4.
• Game script. New England leads; Stevenson gets late carries. The Jets throw to Wilson when trailing.

1. 1.Braelon Allen NYJ RB44%

   Lead back with Hall out, 2 TDs and the team lead in red zone targets.

2. 2.Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB43%

   New England's goal line back, scored the last 2 weeks, with Henderson unlikely to play much.

3. 3.Garrett Wilson NYJ WR33%

   The Jets' primary target (42) with 3 TDs; Adonai Mitchell is out.

4. 4.Romeo Doubs NE WR31%

   New England's most consistent red zone receiver (4 targets, 2 TDs).

También en la mezcla: DeMario Douglas (NE WR, 27%), Drake Maye (NE QB, 22%), Mack Hollins (NE WR, 19%).

A low total (39.5) with Pittsburgh favored by 2.5, roughly 21 to 18.5, and real wind in the forecast. Pittsburgh scores through the air: 10 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing, and its running backs have only 2 carries inside the 10 all season. Pat Freiermuth has 4 of those 10 passing touchdowns, all inside the 20, and Pittsburgh is without receivers Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek, with DK Metcalf questionable (illness). Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends and only 2 rushing touchdowns all season. Tampa's offense leans on Bucky Irving, who had 175 scrimmage yards last week.

• Red zone usage. Freiermuth: 5 red zone targets, 3 inside the 10. Jaylen Warren has no carries inside the 10. Irving has 5 of Tampa Bay's 9 carries inside the 10.
• Defense vs position. Tampa Bay has allowed 2 rushing TDs and 7 passing (4 to receivers, 3 to tight ends). Pittsburgh has allowed 4 rushing and 5 passing.
• Scoring streaks. Freiermuth has scored in 3 of 5 games (2 last week). Irving scored twice last week. Rodgers has thrown 3 TDs in each of his last 3 games.
• Game script. Close and windy. Pittsburgh's red zone offense goes to its tight ends; Tampa Bay runs Irving with a rookie quarterback.

1. 1.Bucky Irving TB RB47%

   Tampa Bay's goal line back (5 of 9 carries inside the 10) and coming off a 2 TD game.

2. 2.Pat Freiermuth PIT TE42%

   Pittsburgh's red zone weapon (4 TDs, all inside the 20), against a defense that has given up 3 tight end TDs, with two receivers out.

3. 3.Jaylen Warren PIT RB38%

   The lead back, but no carries inside the 10 all season; his 2 TDs last week came from 50 and 80 yards.

4. 4.Emeka Egbuka TB WR20%

   Tampa Bay's top target (33) with a rushing TD last week.

También en la mezcla: Kenneth Gainwell (TB RB, 19%), Darnell Washington (PIT TE, 17%), D.K. Metcalf (PIT WR, 17%).

Indianapolis is favored by about a touchdown, roughly 26 to 19. Jonathan Taylor has 12 of Indianapolis' 17 carries inside the 10 and has scored twice in each of the 3 games he scored in. Tennessee is the lowest scoring offense in football (6 offensive touchdowns in 5 games) but has allowed a rushing touchdown in 4 of 5 games. Indianapolis has given up 4 touchdowns to tight ends, which is the opening for Tennessee's passing game. The caveat: Taylor was held without a touchdown in 2 of 5 games.

• Red zone usage. Taylor: 12 carries inside the 10. Tyler Warren: 3 targets inside the 10 plus a 1 yard rushing TD. Tony Pollard: 13 of Tennessee's 17 carries inside the 10 but just 1 TD; Cam Ward has 2 rushing TDs, both from 1 yard.
• Defense vs position. Tennessee has allowed 5 rushing TDs and 5 passing (4 to receivers). Indianapolis has allowed 6 rushing and 9 passing (4 to receivers, 4 to tight ends).
• Scoring streaks. Taylor: 2 TDs in each of Weeks 1, 2 and 4. Warren has scored in 3 of 5. Indianapolis has a rushing TD in 4 of 5 games. Tennessee was held without a TD last week.
• Game script. Indianapolis leads and runs Taylor. Tennessee chases; Wan'Dale Robinson and Elic Ayomanor (6 red zone targets) are its red zone options.

1. 1.Jonathan Taylor IND RB68%

   71% of Indianapolis' carries inside the 10, 6 rushing TDs, and a defense that has allowed a rushing TD in 4 of 5 games.

2. 2.Tony Pollard TEN RB42%

   Tennessee's goal line back by volume (13 carries inside the 10), even if he has converted only one.

3. 3.Tyler Warren IND TE34%

   91% of snaps, 3 targets inside the 10 and a rushing TD; scored in 3 of 5.

4. 4.Keenan Allen IND WR26%

   All 4 of his red zone targets came inside the 10.

También en la mezcla: Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN WR, 26%), Josh Downs (IND WR, 19%), Elic Ayomanor (TEN WR, 18%).

The biggest spread of the week: the Rams by 12.5, roughly 32 to 19.5, and nearly 4 expected Rams offensive touchdowns. Arizona's defense has allowed 20 offensive touchdowns in 5 games, 10 of them to wide receivers, and a 76.5% red zone touchdown rate. The Rams' scoring runs through Kyren Williams near the goal line (11 of 14 carries inside the 10) and Davante Adams and Puka Nacua through the air. Arizona traded Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jeremiyah Love is out, so Trey McBride (11 red zone targets, 8 inside the 10) is Arizona's red zone offense.

• Red zone usage. Kyren: 11 carries inside the 10, 4 red zone targets. Adams: 7 red zone targets. McBride: 11 red zone targets, the most of any player in this guide.
• Defense vs position. Arizona has allowed 6 rushing TDs and 14 passing (10 to receivers, 4 to tight ends). The Rams have allowed 4 rushing and 8 passing (7 to receivers).
• Scoring streaks. Kyren has scored in 4 of 5 games. Adams has two 2 TD games. Nacua has scored in both of his last 2 games (17 catches last week).
• Game script. The Rams lead comfortably, run Kyren late and keep throwing to Adams and Nacua against the second worst pass defense in football by efficiency.

1. 1.Kyren Williams LAR RB66%

   Goal line back for a team projected near 4 touchdowns; scored in 4 of 5.

2. 2.Davante Adams LAR WR51%

   4 TDs and 7 red zone targets against a defense that has given up 10 receiving TDs to receivers.

3. 3.Puka Nacua LAR WR45%

   Scored in 2 straight with 17 catches last week; same matchup.

4. 4.Trey McBride ARI TE33%

   Arizona's red zone offense now that Harrison Jr. is gone: 8 targets inside the 10.

También en la mezcla: Tyler Allgeier (ARI RB, 32%), Michael Wilson (ARI WR, 32%), Blake Corum (LAR RB, 24%).

The highest total of the week (53.5) with Buffalo favored by 4.5, roughly 29 to 24.5. Buffalo leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns, and they come from two players: Josh Allen (8, a rushing TD in every game, 7 of 7 inside the 10 converted) and James Cook (5). Las Vegas has allowed a rushing touchdown in 4 of 5 games and a 77.8% red zone touchdown rate. Las Vegas has scored 12 of its 14 offensive touchdowns through the air, and Ashton Jeanty has 0 rushing touchdowns on 16 red zone carries. Brock Bowers is healthy and has scored in 3 straight games.

• Red zone usage. Allen: 7 carries inside the 10, 7 TDs. Cook: 11 carries inside the 10. Jeanty: 8 carries inside the 10 and 6 red zone targets. Bowers: 5 red zone targets in 3 games.
• Defense vs position. Las Vegas has allowed 6 rushing TDs and 11 passing, including 6 to tight ends (the most in this guide after Washington). Buffalo has allowed 5 rushing and 13 passing (9 to receivers, 3 to backs).
• Scoring streaks. Allen: a rushing TD in all 5 games (2 in each of Weeks 1 to 3). Cook has scored in 4 straight. Bowers: 3 straight. Cody White has 3 TDs on 4 red zone targets.
• Game script. High scoring indoors. Buffalo runs near the goal line with both Allen and Cook; Las Vegas throws to Bowers and its receivers against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 13 passing TDs.

1. 1.James Cook BUF RB61%

   Scored in 4 straight, 11 carries inside the 10, against a defense that allows a rushing TD in almost every game.

2. 2.Ashton Jeanty LV RB52%

   80% of Las Vegas' carries inside the 10 and 2 receiving TDs. Lowered from the model's 58% because he is 0 for 16 on red zone carries.

3. 3.Josh Allen BUF QB52%

   A rushing TD in all 5 games and 7 for 7 inside the 10. Raised from the model's 44%, which splits Buffalo's goal line work by volume and undercounts how often Allen finishes it.

4. 4.Brock Bowers LV TE29%

   Scored in 3 straight and Buffalo allows plenty through the air.

También en la mezcla: Cody White (LV WR, 27%), Tre Tucker (LV WR, 26%), Khalil Shakir (BUF WR, 24%).

Kansas City is favored by about 8, roughly 25 to 17, in a total that has fallen to about 41.5. Kenneth Walker III has 12 of Kansas City's 13 carries inside the 10 and 2 touchdowns in 3 of his 4 games, the cleanest goal line role in the league this week. Kansas City is without Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, who have 3 of its 9 passing touchdowns. The Chiefs' defense has allowed passing touchdowns only to tight ends (4 of 4), and the Chargers' offense is missing three offensive linemen and its target leader Tre Harris.

• Red zone usage. Walker: 12 carries inside the 10, 5 red zone targets. Xavier Worthy: 4 red zone targets. Omarion Hampton: 8 of the Chargers' 9 running back carries inside the 10.
• Defense vs position. Kansas City has allowed 3 rushing TDs and 4 passing, all 4 to tight ends, and only 44% red zone touchdowns. The Chargers have allowed 7 rushing TDs and 7 passing.
• Scoring streaks. Walker scored twice in Weeks 1, 3 and 4. Travis Kelce has scored in 2 of 4. The Chargers have a rushing TD in 4 of 5 games.
• Game script. Kansas City leads and runs Walker against a run defense that has allowed 7 rushing TDs. The Chargers' path to a touchdown is a short Hampton run or a throw to the tight end.

1. 1.Kenneth Walker III KC RB72%

   92% of Kansas City's carries inside the 10 and six TDs in four games; the highest chance in this guide.

2. 2.Omarion Hampton LAC RB32%

   The Chargers' goal line back (3 TDs, all short runs).

3. 3.Xavier Worthy KC WR30%

   Takes on more of the passing game with Rice and Thornton out; 4 red zone targets.

4. 4.Travis Kelce KC TE24%

   79.7% of snaps and 2 TDs; Kansas City needs a red zone target with its receivers thinned.

También en la mezcla: Oronde Gadsden II (LAC TE, 24%), Keaton Mitchell (LAC RB, 15%), Ladd McConkey (LAC WR, 14%).

Among the highest totals of the week (about 53) with Green Bay favored by 1.5, roughly 27 to 26. Both red zone matchups favor the offense: Dallas scores touchdowns on 83% of its red zone trips and Green Bay allows them on 81%; Green Bay's run defense has allowed a rushing touchdown in every game. Javonte Williams has all 6 Dallas rushing touchdowns. On the other side, Dallas has the worst defense in football by EPA and no interceptions, and Christian Watson has 6 of Jordan Love's 10 touchdown passes.

• Red zone usage. Williams: 15 of Dallas' 18 carries inside the 10 (5 TDs on 11 carries inside the 5). George Pickens: 4 targets inside the 10. Watson and Matthew Golden: 7 red zone targets each. MarShawn Lloyd: half of Green Bay's carries inside the 10.
• Defense vs position. Green Bay has allowed 8 rushing TDs and 6 passing. Dallas has allowed 6 rushing and 10 passing (5 to receivers, 3 to tight ends, 2 to backs).
• Scoring streaks. Williams has scored in 4 of 5 games (3 in Week 4). Watson has scored in 4 of 5 (2 last week). CeeDee Lamb has 4 TDs. Lloyd scored twice last week.
• Game script. A shootout script on paper. Dallas runs Williams near the goal line; Green Bay throws, because its run game has struggled (Josh Jacobs is still on the Commissioner's Exempt list).

1. 1.Javonte Williams DAL RB68%

   83% of Dallas' carries inside the 10 against a run defense that has allowed a rushing TD in every game.

2. 2.MarShawn Lloyd GB RB53%

   Green Bay's lead back with Jacobs and Chris Brooks out; half the carries inside the 10 and 2 TDs last week.

3. 3.Christian Watson GB WR46%

   6 TDs (4 of 5 games) against the worst pass defense in football.

4. 4.Matthew Golden GB WR38%

   Team-high 44 targets and 7 red zone targets.

También en la mezcla: CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR, 33%), Tucker Kraft (GB TE, 33%), George Pickens (DAL WR, 25%).

San Francisco is favored by 7.5, roughly 29.5 to 22, and projects for more than 3 offensive touchdowns. The red zone mismatch is the story: San Francisco scores touchdowns on 87.5% of its red zone trips and Washington allows them on 83.3%. Washington's defense has allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns but 14 passing, 7 of them to tight ends, which is why George Kittle grades as high as Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco expects to be without Deebo Samuel (his coach said he will miss time; official status comes Saturday) and probably Mike Evans (no practice Thursday or Friday). Washington's own backfield is uncertain with Jacory Croskey-Merritt missing practice.

• Red zone usage. McCaffrey: 9 of San Francisco's 12 carries inside the 10 (4 TDs on 8 carries inside the 5). Kittle: 4 targets inside the 10. Samuel's 4 targets inside the 10 are open.
• Defense vs position. Washington has allowed 3 rushing TDs and 14 passing (7 to receivers, 7 to tight ends). San Francisco has allowed 3 rushing and 5 passing, none to tight ends.
• Scoring streaks. McCaffrey has scored in 4 straight games. Kittle has 4 TDs (2 in Week 3). Stefon Diggs scored in his first 2 games. Jayden Daniels has 2 rushing TDs, both from 26 yards or more.
• Game script. San Francisco leads and has every reason to keep throwing to Kittle in the red zone. Washington needs its quarterback to make plays on the move.

1. 1.Christian McCaffrey SF RB55%

   Scored in 4 straight with 75% of San Francisco's carries inside the 10. Raised from the model's 51%, which discounts the run because Washington has allowed only 3 rushing TDs.

2. 2.George Kittle SF TE54%

   Washington has allowed 7 tight end TDs, Samuel is expected out and Evans missed practice Thursday and Friday. Trimmed slightly from the model's 56% so the run game is not undersold.

3. 3.Rachaad White WAS RB28%

   First in line if Croskey-Merritt sits; a receiving TD this season.

4. 4.Mike Evans SF WR (D)26%

   3 TDs and 6 red zone targets, but missed Thursday and Friday practice; discounted heavily.

También en la mezcla: Stefon Diggs (WAS WR, 26%), Terry McLaurin (WAS WR, 20%), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS RB, 19%).